SA Asks: Which stocks are most exposed to a Chinese blockade of Taiwan?
View original at seekingalpha.comSA Asks: Which stocks are most exposed to a Chinese blockade of Taiwan?…
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Tanker shipping stocks International Seaways, DHT, and Hafnia would be blockade winners as rerouted crude oil shipments mean more voyage days and higher freight rate revenues
60% confidenceApproximately 20% of global maritime trade passes through the Taiwan Strait annually
60% confidenceTSMC is the most obvious stock exposed to a Taiwan blockade as it still heavily relies on Taiwanese fabs to produce its most advanced chips despite recent diversification efforts
60% confidenceWithout crude oil flowing through the Taiwan Strait, manufacturing processes would halt; Samsung and SK Hynix would not be able to address the resulting memory chip shortage in a timely manner
60% confidenceThe Taiwan Strait handles tens of thousands of ships annually and makes the powering of East Asia possible
60% confidenceA TSMC export shutdown of even a few days would cause a hardware freeze for cloud providers building AI data centers; hyperscaler deployment timelines could be pushed back by months or years
60% confidenceTSMC produces 90% of the world's most advanced chips
60% confidenceMore than 95% of Japan's and 65% of South Korea's crude oil is sourced from the Middle East and transits through the Taiwan Strait
60% confidenceA Taiwan blockade would likely cause an even bigger disruption than the 2021-2022 chip shortage and have a much greater effect on carmakers
60% confidenceCleveland-Cliffs is the largest HRC steel producer in the United States and its top line could be hit very hard if a Taiwan blockade reduces automaker volumes and orders
60% confidenceThe entire AI buildout could come to a halt overnight since cloud providers and hyperscalers including Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon depend on Taiwanese chips
60% confidenceNvidia recently overtook Apple as TSMC's top customer
60% confidenceIntel could benefit from a Taiwan blockade scenario as one of very few companies with expanding EUV capacity outside of Taiwan
60% confidenceA Taiwan blockade is an out-of-consensus scenario unlikely to happen anytime soon
60% confidenceSamsung and GlobalFoundries could find themselves with a lot more pricing power due to more diversified supply chains and limited Taiwan exposure
60% confidenceApple currently takes approximately 90% of TSMC's 3nm production capacity
60% confidenceTSMC produces approximately 35% of the world's automotive microcontrollers; losing access to Taiwanese chips would put millions of cars at risk of delayed or canceled production
60% confidenceEven a short-term maritime disruption would cause assembly plants in China and India to run out of logic boards within weeks
60% confidenceA blockade of Taiwan is an extraordinary black swan event that would disrupt the entire semiconductor and tech supply chain
60% confidenceA Taiwan blockade would negatively impact chip designers Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, and Apple since all depend on TSMC for chip production
60% confidenceThe auto industry would feel pain from a Taiwan blockade; Ford, GM, and most European and Japanese carmakers rely on Taiwan-based suppliers for chips, infotainment screens, electronic modules, and other specialized car components
60% confidence
Data points we hold from this source
| Apple Podcasts · market share | 90 percent |