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Source document· December 7, 2025

Wall Street's 2026 outlook for stocks

View original at finance.yahoo.com
Wall Street's 2026 outlook for stocks It’s that time of year when Wall Street’s top strategists tell clients where they see the stock market heading in the year ahead…
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  • S&P 500 will reach 7,750 by end of 2026 with EPS of $311

    80% confidence
  • S&P 500 will reach 7,400 by end of 2026 with EPS of $305

    80% confidence
  • We're in the midst of a new bull market and earnings cycle, especially for many of the lagging areas of the index

    80% confidence
  • Inflation expected to remain above the Fed's 2% target rate in 2026

    80% confidence
  • S&P 500 will reach 7,500 by end of 2026 with EPS of $300, suggesting another year of double-digit gains mirroring the late 1990s equity boom

    80% confidence
  • S&P 500 will reach 7,500 by end of 2026 with EPS of $309, driven by approximately 14% earnings growth

    80% confidence
  • The standard deviation around the mean annual total return for the S&P 500 is nearly 20 percentage points

    80% confidence
  • Mid-term election years since 1946 averaged 18% intra-year drawdown, highest of all four years of presidential cycle

    80% confidence
  • One Big Beautiful Bill Act expected to add 0.9% to GDP

    80% confidence
  • S&P 500 will reach 8,000 by end of 2026 with EPS of $320

    80% confidence
  • Consensus calls for 14% earnings growth for S&P 500 in 2026

    80% confidence
  • The backdrop is positive for US assets — it's too early to call the bull run over

    80% confidence
  • 2026 should be volatile since it is a mid-term election year, especially since a 'wave' is at stake

    80% confidence
  • S&P 500 will reach 7,100 by end of 2026 with EPS of $310, implying approximately 5% price return

    80% confidence
  • Magnificent 7 names expected to lead earnings surge but growth rate expected to cool from recent years

    80% confidence
  • S&P 500 will reach 7,700 by end of 2026 with EPS of $310

    80% confidence
  • We expect a pickup in earnings growth in 2026 to 14% from 10% in 2025, taking S&P 500 EPS to $320

    80% confidence
  • Current elevated multiples correctly anticipate above-trend earnings growth, an AI capex boom, rising shareholder payouts, and easier fiscal and monetary policies

    80% confidence
  • 2026 will be just another year of the Roaring 2020s

    80% confidence
  • S&P 500 will reach 8,000 by end of 2026

    80% confidence
  • S&P 500 will reach 7,800 by end of 2026 with EPS of $317

    80% confidence
  • The price target should be viewed as a compass as opposed to a GPS

    80% confidence
  • S&P 500 will reach 7,300 by end of 2026 with EPS of $310

    80% confidence
  • Valuations will rise a lot further before the bubble, if there is one, bursts

    80% confidence
  • S&P 500 will reach 7,400 by end of 2026

    80% confidence
  • Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates in 2026

    80% confidence
  • S&P 500 will reach 7,800 by end of 2026 with EPS of $310

    80% confidence
  • S&P 500 will reach 7,500 by end of 2026 with EPS of $315

    80% confidence
What we know · the intelligence behind this page
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What we're seeing
Vertical AI Agents Attract a Funding Wave Across Fintech-Adjacent Industries
A cluster of AI-native startups applying autonomous agents to narrow, operational problems — hotel front-desk staffing (Dextr AI), identity/fraud risk for financial institutions (Baselayer), insurance distribution (Napo, Connie Health, MGT Insurance) — closed seed-to-Series A rounds within days of each other in September 2026, with CB Insights running a coordinated CEO interview series to spotlight them. The pattern points to agentic AI maturing from generic chat tools into vertical, revenue-generating products, with identity verification for AI agents themselves (Baselayer) emerging as a new fintech infrastructure category responding directly to AI-driven fraud risk.
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Signals we're tracking
Satellite-Terrestrial Network Integration Acceleration
Increased investment and launches in hybrid satellite-cellular networks across telecom industry; competitive responses from other carriers; regulatory activity around satellite spectrum; expansion of emergency/rural connectivity use cases
Patterns we're watching ›
Where sources disagree
ING Group
Both facts record the same metric (shares_outstanding) for ING Group at the identical observation date (2025-12-31). FACT A states 2,902,437,688 shares; FACT B states 2,902 million shares (2,902,000,000). The difference is 437,688 shares (~0.015%). This is a genuine value conflict, though the discrepancy appears to result from FACT B rounding to the nearest million while FACT A provides the precise count.
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