Halifax lowers mortgage costs as lenders rethink rate cuts amid Middle East conflict

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• Prospect of a Bank of England base rate cut later this month now looking far less certain

  80% confidence

• Swap rates have been rising sharply as conflict with Iran spreads across the Middle East, driving oil and gas prices higher and reigniting inflation concerns

  80% confidence

• Rise in swap rates suggests that rates for customers either re-mortgaging or purchasing a new home are likely to increase in the near term

  80% confidence

• Some lenders have already paused or reconsidered planned rate reductions

  80% confidence

• Average five-year fixed deal came in at 4.89%, down from 4.99% previously

  80% confidence

• Swap rates have risen in recent days and some lenders had reconsidered previously planned rate reductions

  80% confidence

• If disruption to energy supplies or global supply chains feeds into higher inflation, policymakers may have to be more cautious about how quickly and how far interest rates come down

  80% confidence

• Financial markets have significantly reassessed the likelihood of a quarter-point cut to the Bank of England's base rate at its next meeting

  80% confidence

• Average rate for two-year fixed mortgage came in at 4.53% this week, lower than last week's 4.75%

  80% confidence

• Mortgage costs are not driven solely by domestic policy decisions but by global geopolitical events

  80% confidence

• Making small, optional overpayments when able helps reduce the balance and the impact of future rate moves

  80% confidence

• Markets have been expecting the Bank of England to cut rates further this year, but renewed geopolitical instability risks may make that path less straightforward

  80% confidence

Data points we hold from this source