Peter Thiel warned real estate ‘catastrophe’ will deal massive blow to young Americans. Is his prediction coming true?

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• A Georgist real estate catastrophe is playing out across Anglosphere countries including the U.S., Britain, and Canada

  60% confidence

• The real cost driver for inflation for lower-middle-class people is rent, not groceries or eggs

  60% confidence

• Mortgage rates will average 6.18% in 2026, down from 6.32% in 2025

  60% confidence

• The real issue with housing is insufficient supply, difficulty in zoning lots in desirable locations

  60% confidence

• Adding more people without building new houses due to zoning laws and regulations causes significant wealth transfer from young and lower-middle-class to upper middle class, landlords, and the old

  60% confidence

• Real estate prices are extremely inelastic, especially in regions with strict zoning laws, leading to runaway real estate prices where property owners capture societal gains

  60% confidence

• U.S. home prices will rise just 1.4% in 2026 according to poll of property experts

  60% confidence

• Adding 10% population to a city can cause house prices to rise 50% while salaries don't keep pace, creating a windfall for boomer homeowners and landlords while hitting lower-middle class and young people

  60% confidence

Cited in these Via News reports

• US Housing Market Splits as Middle Class Priced Out While Global Cities Face Similar Affordability Crisis →