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News articleSeeking Alpha· February 13, 2026

Toast outlines 20%-22% recurring gross profit growth for 2026 while advancing AI-driven platform strategy

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Toast outlines 20%-22% recurring gross profit growth for 2026 while advancing AI-driven platform strategy Earnings Call Insights: Toast, Inc…
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  • Toast is a lot more than just a software provider for customers, evolving into a platform

    80% confidence
  • Toast guidance includes approximately 150 basis points of negative impact from higher memory chip costs for hardware

    80% confidence
  • Toast achieved recurring gross profits growth of 33% in 2025

    80% confidence
  • Toast expects Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $160 million to $170 million

    80% confidence
  • Toast expanded adjusted EBITDA margin to 34% in 2025

    80% confidence
  • GAAP operating income was $292 million in 2025, up from just $16 million a year ago

    80% confidence
  • Toast expects another year of record net location adds and consistent ARPU growth

    80% confidence
  • Net location adds increased every quarter versus a year ago in 2025

    80% confidence
  • Toast ended 2025 with 164,000 locations

    80% confidence
  • Customers value ToastIQ as a copilot that can be queried for faster task execution

    80% confidence
  • The new TAM should grow further, which is why Toast has confidence that net add growth in 2026 should be even higher than 2025

    80% confidence
  • ToastIQ not only generates reports and insights about restaurant performance, it executes tasks directly in Toast ranging from menu management to inventory updates

    80% confidence
  • Toast expects adjusted EBITDA of $775 million to $795 million for full year 2026

    80% confidence
  • Toast added over 30,000 net locations to the Toast platform in 2025

    80% confidence
  • Toast's margin framework targeting 40% margins over the long term remains unchanged

    80% confidence
  • ARR grew 26% in 2025

    80% confidence
  • ToastIQ and the adoption of ToastIQ is really the foundation for AI strategy

    80% confidence
  • Less than 4 months post launch, over half of all Toast locations have used ToastIQ, collectively sending over 8 million queries

    80% confidence
  • 2026 reflects Toast's conviction behind new TAMs

    80% confidence
  • Toast now powers 20% of the U.S. SMB and mid-market restaurant segment

    80% confidence
  • Emerging TAMs across retail, international and enterprise doubled ARR in 2025

    80% confidence
  • AI is an opportunity for Toast to lean in even further and strengthen competitive moat

    80% confidence
  • Toast expects 20% to 22% growth in recurring gross profit streams for full year 2026

    80% confidence
  • Toast delivered adjusted EBITDA of $633 million and free cash flow of $608 million in 2025

    80% confidence
  • Toast's U.S. market share has nearly doubled over the past three years

    80% confidence
  • Core SaaS ARPU is growing faster than the total company because new TAMs today have lower SaaS ARPUs but are expected to grow as they scale

    80% confidence
  • Toast expects Q1 2026 total fintech and subscription gross profit growth of 22% to 24% year-over-year

    80% confidence

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What we're seeing
Vertical AI Agents Attract a Funding Wave Across Fintech-Adjacent Industries
A cluster of AI-native startups applying autonomous agents to narrow, operational problems — hotel front-desk staffing (Dextr AI), identity/fraud risk for financial institutions (Baselayer), insurance distribution (Napo, Connie Health, MGT Insurance) — closed seed-to-Series A rounds within days of each other in September 2026, with CB Insights running a coordinated CEO interview series to spotlight them. The pattern points to agentic AI maturing from generic chat tools into vertical, revenue-generating products, with identity verification for AI agents themselves (Baselayer) emerging as a new fintech infrastructure category responding directly to AI-driven fraud risk.
Our read on the data ›
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Satellite-Terrestrial Network Integration Acceleration
Increased investment and launches in hybrid satellite-cellular networks across telecom industry; competitive responses from other carriers; regulatory activity around satellite spectrum; expansion of emergency/rural connectivity use cases
Patterns we're watching ›
Where sources disagree
ING Group
Both facts record the same metric (shares_outstanding) for ING Group at the identical observation date (2025-12-31). FACT A states 2,902,437,688 shares; FACT B states 2,902 million shares (2,902,000,000). The difference is 437,688 shares (~0.015%). This is a genuine value conflict, though the discrepancy appears to result from FACT B rounding to the nearest million while FACT A provides the precise count.
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